Before everyone overreacts to the “quasi-OBN”, it would probably be a good idea to examine exactly what took place in ME 85. We, the DS, have been accused of nefariously plotting to mimic the banned OBN strategy by artificially increasing the reserves of one position (for the record, it was the Cloud Lord). In the interest of full disclosure, I will now list, turn by turn and position by position, all those orders issued by DS nations other than the CL as part of this diabolical plan:
Would you like me to list them again? That’s right, there were no transfers of money, product or popcenters from other DS positions to the Cloud Lord – in fact, the CL transferred away two popcenters (3222 and 4013) and sent out 15K gold on T18. All that happened was that the CL reserves were allowed to grow naturally via a typical tax rate (60%), NatSells and gold thefts. The key of course, was that with one exception, the CL did not send out any aid to his allies.
Oh, I don’t mean to imply that the Cloud Lord wasn’t getting any help – he most certainly was. It’s just that none of this help was coming from his allies. Basically, the game can be divided into two parts. For the first ten turns of the game, the CL reserves were rising; from T11 on, the reserves were pretty constant, mostly due to a rather sudden halving of his taxbase <g>. The largest increase in reserves, from 86K to 173K, occurred from the beginning of T8 to the end of T10. Over that time the CL had three sources of revenue. In increasing yield they were:
- a 5.5k/turn surplus, netting about 16K
- NatSells totaling 34K
- Eleven Gold thefts totaling 39K
That’s right, the biggest contribution to the rapid growth in CL reserves came directly from FP reserves – and on Turns 8 through 10. And it turns out, the FP largesse wasn’t limited to the CL; over the same three turns, the IK scored 27K in seven thefts.
OK, so what was the market response to this increase in CL reserves? Taking into account the one-turn lag in response (i.e. reserves are used to calculate the next turns buy/sell prices), here are the sell prices for each commodity. The first number is the sell price on T9; the second is the sell price on T11:
LE 4 4
BR 3 3
ST 5 6
MI 74 74
FO 1 1
TI 4 7
MO 15 26
For the record, this happened to be two turns where food sold at 1; it was indeed commonly at 2. Other than that, the above sell prices were fairly typical. There were anomalous spikes in Mount, Timber and Steel prices the entire game. Since we were not buying, I can only assume the FP were responsible. We did indeed profit greatly when these did occur, though.
Suffice it to say, our evil machinations did little more than stabilize the market – and there’s no telling what might have resulted had the Free Peoples not been so blissfully helping. It is an undeniable fact that getting the market stabilized at those levels is a major strategic goal of any DS team, and in that we were successful.
The real question is whether this stratagem is just a sneaky way of getting around the embargo on the OBN. For this, it would be prudent to reread the original OBN thread. As part of Team Veta Schola, Drew Carson and I were among the first to bring this problem out in the open. Our pitch – and I believe it was the argument that finally swayed Clint – was that the FP had no counter to the OBN as designed. The original plan had all the DS positions transferring their gold to one position on T1, instantly creating reserves of over 200K. Prices immediately rise, Market sell limits rise hand in hand, and the market goes into an upward spiral. The FP have no ability to stop this – at game start, they don’t have the agents available to steal the stacked gold reserves. Moreover, we demonstrated to Clint in the game that we were playing at the time, that it was possible to both generate a second banker nation in response to any threat to the first, and to simply move the stacked reserves around from position to position, making it extremely difficult for the FP to figure out who had the reserves. As a result, Clint put in a very effective embargo, limiting the amount of gold that can be received via transfer – and also, en passant, preventing the DS from protecting their stack by moving it.
I submit that the stratagem that we used in ME 85 has only a passing similarity to the OBN that caused all the uproar. The growth in reserves is much slower, which means that the sell prices do indeed fall from their initial values. Most importantly, and I think little appreciated, is the fact that the Market Sell Limit is have time to fall from its initial 30K per position to its more typical 20K. What that means is that if you are running a 15K deficit, and the sell limit is 20K, you effectively have no capability build any reserves. Ultimately, that was the reason we lost three positions in 85; in each case Sell orders were scotched because the FP burned the capital. Since their reserves were negligible, their deficit drove those positions into bankruptcy.
However, the most important difference is that the FP do indeed have several counters to the stratagem. The first should be evident from the initial discussion above (at least for those not lulled to sleep). The second is more obvious – the FP can steal the reserves and dissipate the gold in various and sundry manners. The gold stack is stationary; it can’t be moved, and there is access to it from any of that position’s popcenters. The FP in 85 certainly had the capability to do this – in fact they twice had agent companies in the CL capital. They also repeatedly stole from the BS en masse, in what appeared to be a fairly silly and desperate attempt to secure a SM artifact. That same effort dedicated to finding the DS gold stack might have lead to a different outcome. We should not be penalized because the FP failed to employ any of these counters.
Clint, I urge you not act hastily and arbitrarily in in an effort to create some sort of ME – Harrison Bergeron hybrid. Frequently, a problem such as this can be solved just by airing out the mechanics and pointing out counters – and I hope this post can start that discussion. This may even open up another arena for the FP and DS to cross swords, adding even more depth to a terrific game.