1650 Changes - Forget Gunboat....

General
#61

Hi,

Interesting reading.
I always thought it was the “total” gold stores of all nations in the game, that determined the product prices - NOT the gold store of any one single nation. Prices normal always explode to some degree early on, because prices initially are high. But prices then quickly degrade if FP do their stuff right.

I dont quite understand why its neccessary for the “banker” to upgrade taxes to 100%. Eventually the loyalty of capital will degreade to near zerro, which gives MUCH weaker defense when the enemy eventually shows up.

When you say the prices explode, to what degree are we talking about ? I normally see fx ST at price 6 initially.

KA

#62

One of my biggest gripes about strategies like this, is for new players they remain in total ignorance of these things. Because of the “vow of secrecy” so many tactics aren’t revealed, and so a newer player is going to continuously be at a disadvantage. If you want to keep new people coming to the game (which is the only healthy way of running a game like this) a lot of these strategies need to be readily accessible. It is so uneven (someone who knows all these “special” strategies vs. someone who just has access to all the stuff on Bobbins/MiddleEarthGames.com) that it becomes very frustrating at times to learn how to play.

-Robert

#63

Much higher - from memory we were typically selling at 15+. Also from memory: we didnt REALLY push it. Once we had prices at that level, we were kind of pleased with ourselves and sat back. With a bit of effort we could have got the LR bank balance to twice the level - presumably with twice the impact.

With this cat out of the bag I think there is a big problem… For one I am not going to be playing FP in the foreseeable :rolleyes: and believe it or not I wouldnt intend using the strategy myself in a “normal” game.

I hope Clint & Co find a way to change the programme.

#64

Sorry Brad, but I completely disagree. Somehow I don’t think the game designers intended inflation to work in this manner thus I would consider it an exploit. That’s the key distinction. This kind of bug is a game breaker since it takes away one of the biggest advantages of the FP, especially in 2950. If it can’t be countered then I can’t see how a competent DS team could ever lose. Chalk up one more benefit for playing Gunboat.

Being a programmer myself and having played a ton of games, it is almost impossible for anybody to predict ahead of times all of the logic flaws in a complicated program. I’ve seen it in almost every genre imaginable, not only in strategy games but even first person shooters. It’s amazing to me that Middle Earth doesn’t have even more exploits like this given how long it’s been around presumably without any code changes. But in any case it’s always the same. People keep it secret for their own advantage for as long as possible, then it becomes public domain, then it gets fixed.

Bernout

#65

It is so uneven (someone who knows all these “special” strategies vs. someone who just has access to all the stuff on Bobbins/MiddleEarthGames.com) that it becomes very frustrating at times to learn how to play.

We don’t have any secret information if that what worries you Robert. As to if you’ve played the game you get access to information, I find that any game that you have experience you have an advantage in though. KS will have different rules, new riddles etc. 1000 is more open for new players and also the game is set-up so that you are in a team - you’re not alone like you are in many other games. Therefore you gain experience and information from your team-mates - we always balance games as well so that teams are roughly even in strengths at game start and then let the dice roll.

Clint (GM)

Note I don’t think that having one nation with a lot of gold is the what changes the market - I agree with Kim here as to the impact of lots of gold in the market (and therefore the manner by which you defeat it). It’s difficult to achieve though and keep achieved. There are MANY ways that the FP can deal with it (we do as FP when we’re playing for example). All strategies have strengths and weaknesses that I’ve found. Quick v Slow build-up, Ems vs other classes, Item hunting vs other use for Characters etc, multi-class vs single-class characters etc.

Clint (player)

#66

So, in game 16, the theory was advanced that market prices would rise so that any single nation could not afford to buy out 2 commodities. This was the theory. I can tell you that this theory is bunk. I did a thorough analysis of game 16 as the freeps were kind enough to send me their .pdfs and .xmls from all the turns in the game, and I had all the turns from the DS as well. So I had all 24 nations turn files (it was a 12v12 grudge game) for the 16 or so turns the game ran.

All the data was put into a spreadsheet. And, I can tell you that whatever formula is used by the software program that is MEPBM, is not as simple as preventing a single nation from buying out 2 commodities. In fact, it doesn’t seem to be correlated to “total gold” in treasuries either. In fact, I couldn’t correlate it to much of anything that I could think of. So much for my analysis. phoeey. Good thing I’m not an actuarial accountant for an insurance company. The insurance company would go broke!

So I have no clue what the ‘formula’ is that is behind the economy in MEPBM. But it is true that pumping up the bank account of a single nation has dramatically greater impact upon prices than having that same amount of money spread out among several nations in treasuries. That is proven fact.

Should that be “fixed?” Now that’s an interesting question. Do I think it makes the DS “unbeatable?” Well, I know 1650, and no, I certainly don’t think it makes the DS invulnerable in 1650. I don’t know 2950 and defer to those that know it better than I.

Is this a “new” thing? not really. I think some people have used this over time, for a long time. I can remember games back in GSI days where, for example, the game was all but over and a bug hunt was underway where the Noldo had huge treasury and the economy went haywire. So certainly, the ability to observe this happened a decade or more ago. Did some teams figure it out and use it? Likely so. Are there counters? I believe so and as Mike points out, the FP can use a hyper economy to their advantage also…

Dave

#67

The cat is out of the bag, I’m seeing it more and more (I’m on the same team against the GMs that Drew is). I think it will begin to become SOP, which is why it should be considered now, before it becomes SOP, as we all clearly are.

JB

#68

Responses below…with #####

a. new camps won’t last with 100 loyalty unless you park an emmie there. If you park an emmie there, you’re taking one of your chars out of useful service.

####That makes no sense. People keep a character(s) around to do capital orders and this would be no different.

b. if you have no infrastructure (pop centers), you can’t afford to hire new characters, field armies, etc. unless you eat into the bankroll.

######By running a 100% tax rate and selling 20k a turn in product you can easily generate 30k/turn. Which is more than plenty.

c. if you really eat into the bankroll each turn, you’ll defeat the whole purpose of the banker nation.

####Yes, but that’s not going to happen with 30k/turn is it?

d. all the agents you keep home defending against gold thefts aren’t out training, stealing gold, etc. i.e. their ramp to A60 is much slower

#####True, but with prices so high the DS can more easily run full rosters, replace characters etc. so team-wide this is pretty minor.

e. Reveal Pop Center is a spell the FP can learn & cast also.

####Yeah, I talked about this a couple posts ago and if your comments were insulting at first you are sure kicking it into high gear now. Glad you are going to be tying up Elrond etc. trying to learn reveal, moving into position etc. instead of LAT etc. :wink:

f. If you want to keep enough high-powered characters at home to defend against the inevitable character swarm attack, those characters aren’t out doing what they should be doing - whacking FP…

####Every assumption you’ve made is that the DS player just sits there and acts as stupidly as possible. I agree that if they do you can defeat thier strategy as outlined above.

So, I continue to believe that there are good counters to this strategy.

####Perhaps but your points above weren’t convincing.

#69

Your entire first paragraph assumption is wrong…which is the whole point of the discussion. Prices with be about 3x higher than normal…maybe a little lower. A bunch of gold with one nation counts more in the formula than the same amount spread out.

Taxes to 100% to intentionally wreck the 4 starting LR camps so you can’t steal from them. After this…taxes can go back to a more sustainable level.

Imagine having a single camp generate 6-10k worth a product a turn.

#70

2 points:

  1. I am an actuary for an insurance company. :slight_smile:
  2. Thankyou for discussing this and putting the time in. I remain unconvinced that the FP can stop this…but time will tell…you are certainly a lot more experienced at 1650 than I so I respectfully just shrug my shoulders.
#71

Darrel,
I wasn’t trying to insult you. I apologize if it came across that way.
Dave

#72

Darn it. Can’t we all just be mean to each other. This whole friendly insulting thing is boring. I believe it will become SOP and time will tell if there is a realistic way for the free to stop it (or if the free just use it as well and the military game just completely goes out the window).

See ya,
Ken

#73

You mean to say you completely agree with me. There is LOTS of stuff the Game Designers didn’t think about or intend… THAT’s my entire argument. The game designers created the game. With play testing and then as it went on, various items WERE CHANGED. At some point, they simply stopped, and in the present time, MEGames claim they can’t or won’t.

My point is, items such as this (again, Easy DS play, Very Tough FP counter) demand a Change. BECAUSE The Game Designers weren’t prophetic and perfect…

Brad

#74

Ok. I disagreed with you saying this market manipulation wasn’t a loophole but you are right that we are essentially in the end saying the same thing. :cool: Of course once you start making changes you open a can of worms. Fixing an exploit is one thing, messing around with game balance is another as a few of the present topics have already shown.

Bernout

#75

Exploit, loophole, call it what you will, it’s simply another example of lack of appreciation that “the accountants” will eventually figure it out.

Is there a line of code somewhere that in effect means “No single nation will possess enough gold to buy out any 2 products.”…? Who knows, maybe. It seems to conflict with other “theories” regarding market purchase/sell limits. For example, I’ve had able vet’s advise me that in the beginning, nations were able to manipulate the market all by themselves via buyouts - and in the early days the code was changed to not allow nations to buy more than a certain amount.

This brings up 2 points:

  1. they weren’t perfect and realized they had to make a change
  2. if market buyouts were changed like this, then why would it matter how much gold 1 nation had as he can’t buy out any product due to this earlier supposed change, talk about 2!!

Was this previous change made? Does the data point to a correlation between single nation vs price? Etc…yet still more questions, the truth might never be known outside programming deeeeep in the heart of the MEGames Top Secret Labs, but action and reaction tells us “Do this and that will result”. As long as That still happens every time we do This…

#76

Brad,
As far as I know, they CAN’T change the program at present as it was written in FORTRAN on an apple computer many years ago. They have only been in the process of converting it to another programming language for windows now. They did not have the rights to do so until they recently acquired said rights.

Scavenger

#77

hey, I used to program in Fortran…

woops… dating myself…

It was vectorizing Fortran on a supercomputer too!

woops… dating myself even more…

you’re kidding right? there’s no way that MEPBM was written in Fortran. right? tell me you’re kidding… please?

#78

Intent is the difference between murder and manslaughter. Either way you have a dead body. But intent puts you towards the probation side of the punishment spectrum or towards the Death House side. Intent is the difference between mistake and deception. If I say the moon is made out of cheese, because I am misinformed, it is a mistake. If I am selling cheese futures it is deception.

One of the best methods of deception is the “literal truth”. What you are saying is true, it just isn’t all of the truth.

I am a computer illiterate. I was forced to buy my computer and learn how to email when Harley bought out the American game. That said, I do know a little about deception—a portion fo my adult life was unraveling criminal conspiracies.

Here is a SPECULATION that surfaced in my mind some time ago. Harley says they can’t change the program code. I accept that. But, what if it was a ‘literal truth’? That is, farfetched as it seems, the entire story was not being told? How would/could they actually change results without changing the code? Remember, I don’t know FORTRAN from GOOGLE.

Let me postulate a possibility: Between ME and the code and between the players and the code would be “bridging” programs. Whatever their correct technical name might be. The MEOW, Automagic and xmls are generated somehow and it is not by the original GSI code. Take it a bit further, ME sees a 'problem" which they want to 'fix". Possible caused by the very desire to generate xmls, etc. Then they would use the “bridging” programs to do that.

I leave it to the IT experts to make what they will of this. If the SPECULATION is correct then it might explain some odd events. It might even explain the economic outcomes that have been under discussion.

#79

Ed,
It’s possible that there are supplementary programs, but much depends on the architecture of the original GSI program. If it’s monolithic and keeps the “turn data” internally while it’s processed (which I consider to be highly likely given when it was written, etc.), then it’s highly unlikely that a supplementary program could be written to alter game state because the monolithic program is what writes out the turn results (including turn graphics, turn sheets, etc.).

however, if the program is written using a more structured modern method (again I find this unlikely, especially if it’s Fortran), then there is likely an external database containing “in-process” turn data, that can be read-in & modified prior to the turn results being printed. That would enable a supplementary program to exist and operate.

Clearly there is a inter-turn database. Clearly also there is an editor capability for this database to allow corrections, etc. (or setups for FA, grudge, etc.)

All that said, why would you write such supplementary programs? Much better idea to actually translate the Fortran to a modern language that can be maintained.

This market behavior was there back in GSI days. It’s not new. It’s not from a supplementary program.

All of this is my speculation. It is not literal truth. There is no “Intent” other than trying to dampen your penchant for positing conspiracy. I do thoroughly agree with much of your arguments on game strategy. I just disagree with your “Harley is a bad guy” theme.

Dave

#80

Thank you, Dave, for the explaination.