Captured in Battle

mepbmlist
#1

I'd like to maybe spawn off a new thread here,
based on the experience my FA grudge team is having.
This is a two-way grudge team, we are DS vs. their FP.

Overall we are doing okay, but there's been one
really remarkable problem we keep facing, which is
that whereas we rarely capture enemy characters
in battle, they've been capturing our guys right
and left.

I've just reviewed all 11 turns for all our nations,
and put together some interesting statistics.
I figured out the number of battles won by each side
and how many defeated characters were present to
be possibly captured. (Of course I know exactly
how many we had; I can only figure their commanders
and any spellcasters or weapon-wielders, so my counts
for enemy characters present may be low -- which as you
will see will only make the results more surprising.)

Here is the chart (remember we are the DS).

DS:
#Wins 26
#Enemy chars killed or captured: 3
#Enemy chars known to be present in battle: 32

So in effect we got 3 out of 32 known chars or 10%,
or another way to look at it, we got 3 chars out
of 26 battles. If the #Enemy chars was higher than
we know, then it means we did even more poorly in
capturing them.

FP:
#Wins: 24
#Enemy chars killed or captured: 14
#Enemy known to be present: 44.

So in effect they got 14 out of 44 known chars,
or about 33%!!! Not too shabby! (Or 14 chars
in 24 battles.)

The battles have fallen in a variety of shapes,
there nothing consistent about them; it isn't
like we've always just barely won while their
victories have been 1000-to-100 troop romps.
Just lots of hard-fought campaigns. Our chars
are about as good as theirs, can't put this
down to them having Regents who easily capture
us while we have Commanders. We both have
high and low commanders and have won and lost
battles with both. (In fact one of the three
times we did capture someone it was a regent
captured by a hero.)

We are doing okay, though this has been the big
thorn in our side, since it started almost right
away. (We've had to replace characters executed,
make do with fewer characters, and put agents into
effect doing rescues instead of other things like
guarding or thefts or whatever.) We keep expecting
it to right itself but this trend goes on turn
after turn after turn.

So...are we just being repeatedly unlucky? Or
are the FP more likely to capture DS chars than
vice versa? Or perhaps there is a pre-game roll
for predisposition, sort of like the game genetics,
saying whether one side or the other is more likely
to be captured, and we had a bad roll?

Jeremy Richman

#2

Hi Jeremy.

The obvious answer, of course, is that folks who hang
out with Orcs and dragons probably don't have the
good sense NOT to get captured. :slight_smile:

Actually, I think you are just having bad luck. As I
understand things, there is a neutral roll that takes
place after the resolution of each battle to determine
whether characters involved in the battle are
captured, killed, or injured. I don't know the
weighting of the criteria but I have always suspected
that the location of the battle ("home field
advantage"?) makes a difference.

Joseph

···

--- JeremyRichman@compuserve.com wrote:

So...are we just being repeatedly unlucky? Or
are the FP more likely to capture DS chars than
vice versa? Or perhaps there is a pre-game roll
for predisposition, sort of like the game genetics,
saying whether one side or the other is more likely
to be captured, and we had a bad roll?

Jeremy Richman

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#3

I have always believed that the presence of cavalry in the winning army
makes it much more likely to capture the loosers (also makes sense that its
harder to run away from cavalry than infantry).

Henning

···

-----Oprindelig meddelelse-----
Fra: JeremyRichman@compuserve.com [mailto:JeremyRichman@compuserve.com]
Sendt: 20. februar 2001 18:16
Til: mepbmlist@yahoogroups.com
Emne: [mepbmlist] Captured in Battle

I'd like to maybe spawn off a new thread here,
based on the experience my FA grudge team is having.
This is a two-way grudge team, we are DS vs. their FP.

Overall we are doing okay, but there's been one
really remarkable problem we keep facing, which is
that whereas we rarely capture enemy characters
in battle, they've been capturing our guys right
and left.

I've just reviewed all 11 turns for all our nations,
and put together some interesting statistics.
I figured out the number of battles won by each side
and how many defeated characters were present to
be possibly captured. (Of course I know exactly
how many we had; I can only figure their commanders
and any spellcasters or weapon-wielders, so my counts
for enemy characters present may be low -- which as you
will see will only make the results more surprising.)

Here is the chart (remember we are the DS).

DS:
#Wins 26
#Enemy chars killed or captured: 3
#Enemy chars known to be present in battle: 32

So in effect we got 3 out of 32 known chars or 10%,
or another way to look at it, we got 3 chars out
of 26 battles. If the #Enemy chars was higher than
we know, then it means we did even more poorly in
capturing them.

FP:
#Wins: 24
#Enemy chars killed or captured: 14
#Enemy known to be present: 44.

So in effect they got 14 out of 44 known chars,
or about 33%!!! Not too shabby! (Or 14 chars
in 24 battles.)

The battles have fallen in a variety of shapes,
there nothing consistent about them; it isn't
like we've always just barely won while their
victories have been 1000-to-100 troop romps.
Just lots of hard-fought campaigns. Our chars
are about as good as theirs, can't put this
down to them having Regents who easily capture
us while we have Commanders. We both have
high and low commanders and have won and lost
battles with both. (In fact one of the three
times we did capture someone it was a regent
captured by a hero.)

We are doing okay, though this has been the big
thorn in our side, since it started almost right
away. (We've had to replace characters executed,
make do with fewer characters, and put agents into
effect doing rescues instead of other things like
guarding or thefts or whatever.) We keep expecting
it to right itself but this trend goes on turn
after turn after turn.

So...are we just being repeatedly unlucky? Or
are the FP more likely to capture DS chars than
vice versa? Or perhaps there is a pre-game roll
for predisposition, sort of like the game genetics,
saying whether one side or the other is more likely
to be captured, and we had a bad roll?

Jeremy Richman

Middle Earth PBM List - Middle Earth and Harlequin Games
To Unsubscribe:www.egroups.com
http://www.MiddleEarthGames.com

#4

JeremyRichman@compuserve.com wrote

DS:
#Wins 26
#Enemy chars killed or captured: 3
#Enemy chars known to be present in battle: 32

FP:
#Wins: 24
#Enemy chars killed or captured: 14
#Enemy known to be present: 44.

I think it's the size of the defeat which affects it. Same algorithm
for getting killed or wounded in battle. Watch what happens - if you're
roughly evenly matched, your characters will survive. If you get steam-
rollered, you can get injured or killed.

You'd have to gather the data on the relative scales of the defeats. As
you have won more battles at this early stage of the game, it would
suggest that you have won 26 skirmishes, where you slightly outnumbered
the enemy, and they have won 24 battles, where they were much more
powerful. It's not that odd, since I guess your armies are small and
making the most of all your commanders, whereas theirs are large with
Sub-Comms against your agents. Either that or they are a shock awful FP
team.

Regards,

Laurence G. Tilley http://www.lgtilley.freeserve.co.uk/

#5

Some time ago, I had it hinted at by GSI, (though I think it may have been a slip),
that if you refuse challenge and lose the battle, your chances of being captured
increase. Can't verify this with numbers, but it seemed to be relevant at the time.

Mike Mulka

#6

Well that might well explain it. They have lots of cavalry
due to conjuring mounts (those elves). We do have some
conjurers ourselves but I think we've faced a lot more than
we've fielded.

Jeremy Richman

--- In mepbmlist@y..., HENNING RINDBÆK LARSEN <rindbaek@g...> wrote:

I have always believed that the presence of cavalry in the winning

army

makes it much more likely to capture the loosers (also makes sense

that its

···

harder to run away from cavalry than infantry).

Henning

> -----Oprindelig meddelelse-----
> Fra: JeremyRichman@c… [mailto:JeremyRichman@c…]
> Sendt: 20. februar 2001 18:16
> Til: mepbmlist@y…
> Emne: [mepbmlist] Captured in Battle
>
>
> I'd like to maybe spawn off a new thread here,
> based on the experience my FA grudge team is having.
> This is a two-way grudge team, we are DS vs. their FP.
>
> Overall we are doing okay, but there's been one
> really remarkable problem we keep facing, which is
> that whereas we rarely capture enemy characters
> in battle, they've been capturing our guys right
> and left.
>
> I've just reviewed all 11 turns for all our nations,
> and put together some interesting statistics.
> I figured out the number of battles won by each side
> and how many defeated characters were present to
> be possibly captured. (Of course I know exactly
> how many we had; I can only figure their commanders
> and any spellcasters or weapon-wielders, so my counts
> for enemy characters present may be low – which as you
> will see will only make the results more surprising.)
>
> Here is the chart (remember we are the DS).
>
> DS:
> #Wins 26
> #Enemy chars killed or captured: 3
> #Enemy chars known to be present in battle: 32
>
> So in effect we got 3 out of 32 known chars or 10%,
> or another way to look at it, we got 3 chars out
> of 26 battles. If the #Enemy chars was higher than
> we know, then it means we did even more poorly in
> capturing them.
>
> FP:
> #Wins: 24
> #Enemy chars killed or captured: 14
> #Enemy known to be present: 44.
>
> So in effect they got 14 out of 44 known chars,
> or about 33%!!! Not too shabby! (Or 14 chars
> in 24 battles.)
>
> The battles have fallen in a variety of shapes,
> there nothing consistent about them; it isn't
> like we've always just barely won while their
> victories have been 1000-to-100 troop romps.
> Just lots of hard-fought campaigns. Our chars
> are about as good as theirs, can't put this
> down to them having Regents who easily capture
> us while we have Commanders. We both have
> high and low commanders and have won and lost
> battles with both. (In fact one of the three
> times we did capture someone it was a regent
> captured by a hero.)
>
> We are doing okay, though this has been the big
> thorn in our side, since it started almost right
> away. (We've had to replace characters executed,
> make do with fewer characters, and put agents into
> effect doing rescues instead of other things like
> guarding or thefts or whatever.) We keep expecting
> it to right itself but this trend goes on turn
> after turn after turn.
>
> So…are we just being repeatedly unlucky? Or
> are the FP more likely to capture DS chars than
> vice versa? Or perhaps there is a pre-game roll
> for predisposition, sort of like the game genetics,
> saying whether one side or the other is more likely
> to be captured, and we had a bad roll?
>
> Jeremy Richman
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
>
> Middle Earth PBM List - Middle Earth and Harlequin Games
> To Unsubscribe:www.egroups.com
> http://www.MiddleEarthGames.com
>
>

#7

I always subscribed to the "sum of challenge ranks" theory.
The odds of injury etc. were based in part on a comparison of the
total challenge ranks on both sides, including subcommanders.

In 2950/108 we had a lot of captured free army commanders in the Ithil
pass because we would narrowly lose battles between single larger free
armies and lots of smaller DS armies with good challenge characters in
them. We tended to capture their guys in the reverse situation.

Of course, we also had to RfsPers which could contribute...

cheers,

Marc
--- In mepbmlist@y..., JeremyRichman@c... wrote:

···

I'd like to maybe spawn off a new thread here,
based on the experience my FA grudge team is having.
This is a two-way grudge team, we are DS vs. their FP.

Overall we are doing okay, but there's been one
really remarkable problem we keep facing, which is
that whereas we rarely capture enemy characters
in battle, they've been capturing our guys right
and left.

I've just reviewed all 11 turns for all our nations,
and put together some interesting statistics.
I figured out the number of battles won by each side
and how many defeated characters were present to
be possibly captured. (Of course I know exactly
how many we had; I can only figure their commanders
and any spellcasters or weapon-wielders, so my counts
for enemy characters present may be low -- which as you
will see will only make the results more surprising.)

Here is the chart (remember we are the DS).

DS:
#Wins 26
#Enemy chars killed or captured: 3
#Enemy chars known to be present in battle: 32

So in effect we got 3 out of 32 known chars or 10%,
or another way to look at it, we got 3 chars out
of 26 battles. If the #Enemy chars was higher than
we know, then it means we did even more poorly in
capturing them.

FP:
#Wins: 24
#Enemy chars killed or captured: 14
#Enemy known to be present: 44.

So in effect they got 14 out of 44 known chars,
or about 33%!!! Not too shabby! (Or 14 chars
in 24 battles.)

The battles have fallen in a variety of shapes,
there nothing consistent about them; it isn't
like we've always just barely won while their
victories have been 1000-to-100 troop romps.
Just lots of hard-fought campaigns. Our chars
are about as good as theirs, can't put this
down to them having Regents who easily capture
us while we have Commanders. We both have
high and low commanders and have won and lost
battles with both. (In fact one of the three
times we did capture someone it was a regent
captured by a hero.)

We are doing okay, though this has been the big
thorn in our side, since it started almost right
away. (We've had to replace characters executed,
make do with fewer characters, and put agents into
effect doing rescues instead of other things like
guarding or thefts or whatever.) We keep expecting
it to right itself but this trend goes on turn
after turn after turn.

So...are we just being repeatedly unlucky? Or
are the FP more likely to capture DS chars than
vice versa? Or perhaps there is a pre-game roll
for predisposition, sort of like the game genetics,
saying whether one side or the other is more likely
to be captured, and we had a bad roll?

Jeremy Richman

#8

I had the theory explained this way, each round of battle the game
rolls to see if a commander is injured, captured, or killed. closer
battles go more rounds, thus increasing the chance for a loser to get
captured (as winners don't get captured - at least I've never seen or
heard of it)

so if you lose lots of close battles, you lose lots of commanders...

now I also remember that commanders getting injured/killed started to
happen more often about 18 months ago than before...