I knew there was a number cruncher out there! If you are lucky it works!!
probabilities NEVER work out for most of usmostly abover and below with
the average being the middleground
···
-----Original Message-----
From: pdeglopper@mediaone.net [SMTP:pdeglopper@mediaone.net]
Sent: Friday, May 25, 2001 11:07 AM
To: mepbmlist@yahoogroups.com
Subject: [mepbmlist] Re: Chance of 40 C downgrading?
I'd probably wait. The more people who have to downgrade with a 40C,
the better your chances of failing, and the numbers get unfavorable
very quickly.
Assume a 40C has a 75% chance to downgrade successfully. As good as
number as any, probably on the generous side.
Two nations downgrading, each with a 40C, will both succeed 9/16 of
the time, or a bit over 50%.
Three nations will all succeed 27/64 of the time, or about 42%.
Four nations will all succeed 81/256 of the time, or about 31%.
If the chance to succeed is lower, it gets worse faster.
-Peter
--- In mepbmlist@y..., "Frank Lee" <frank__lee@h...> wrote:
>I think the chance is higher, I've succeeded more often than failed
with my
>C40s, but maybe I was born lucky?
Hi Pontus, would you risk putting this down in very approximate
numbers? I'm
in one of those scenarios where if one of us fails the downgrade and
the
rest press the attack forward, they'll kill themselves on Rhudaur's
walls 
So we have to decide whether to attack now or wait until we make
sure the
downgrade has succeeded...
Thanks!
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