Why do you think it is sooo hard to win the lottery when there are only 6 balls (not including bonuses)?
Think about it. 
路路路
From: "Wilson Reis" <will@ism.com.br>
Reply-To: mepbmlist@yahoogroups.com
To: <mepbmlist@yahoogroups.com>
Subject: Re: [mepbmlist] Re: Chance of 40 C downgrading?
Date: Fri, 25 May 2001 16:48:50 -0300Gosh, what are you talking about ?
Coins ? It's always 50-50, i am sorry.
The past events do not interfere !
If it's about "seeding", i MAY agree, but that might mean, on the other hand, that if the seed
"helps" one commander, it will help others...Never happened to notice some weird turns, where almost all 690 orders failed (on both sides) ?
That's what i would call "seeding" problems, but then it would never worsen the chances of
downgrading relations based on sucesses that happened in that same turn...Sorry for my strange english, i hope i made myself clear.
Meus dois centavos
Will----- Original Message -----
From: "Draugnar" <Draugnar@one.net>
To: <mepbmlist@yahoogroups.com>
Sent: Friday, May 25, 2001 3:51 PM
Subject: RE: [mepbmlist] Re: Chance of 40 C downgrading?> The key to the probability is that EACH person still has a 75% chance of
> succeeding. But the chances of BOTH succeeding are significantly less. So,
> by this logic, IF the other downgrade happens first, then your downgrade has
> a statistically smaller chance of succeeding. Think if it this way. If you
> flip a coin ten times, 5 of those should be heads and five tails. Any given
> flip of a coin has a 50/50 shot for heads and tails. But if the first 4
> coin tosses come out heads, then the probability is (5 to 1) that the next
> coin toss will be tails.
>
> 1st coin = even money
> 2nd coin = 5 to 4 against the first coins result
> 3rd coin = even money if the first two came out different, or 5 to 3 against
> the result of the first two.
> and so forth...
>
> His statistical analysis was just demonstrating this. When using a random
> number generator, unless the seed is changed between each random number, you
> clearly see the laws of probability in action as the computer is never truly
> random. That's why you need to seed the generator at least once based on
> the current date and time and it's better to reseed it between numbers with
> the date and time of the moment.
>
> -Draugnar
>
> -----Original Message-----
> From: Wilson Reis [mailto:will@ism.com.br]
> Sent: Friday, May 25, 2001 12:29 PM
> To: mepbmlist@yahoogroups.com
> Subject: Re: [mepbmlist] Re: Chance of 40 C downgrading?
>
> As my math teacher would say : That looks like "rabbit's and wands".
> >From which sleeve did that came ? I never heard that simultaneous downgrades
> would be harder.
> Please, tell us a bit more about that
>
> I love those theories
>
> Regards
> Will
>
> ----- Original Message -----
> From: <pdeglopper@mediaone.net>
> To: <mepbmlist@yahoogroups.com>
> Sent: Friday, May 25, 2001 1:06 PM
> Subject: [mepbmlist] Re: Chance of 40 C downgrading?
>
> > I'd probably wait. The more people who have to downgrade with a 40C,
> > the better your chances of failing, and the numbers get unfavorable
> > very quickly.
> >
> > Assume a 40C has a 75% chance to downgrade successfully. As good as
> > number as any, probably on the generous side.
> >
> > Two nations downgrading, each with a 40C, will both succeed 9/16 of
> > the time, or a bit over 50%.
> >
> > Three nations will all succeed 27/64 of the time, or about 42%.
> >
> > Four nations will all succeed 81/256 of the time, or about 31%.
> >
> > If the chance to succeed is lower, it gets worse faster.
> >
> > -Peter
> >
> > --- In mepbmlist@y..., "Frank Lee" <frank__lee@h...> wrote:
> > > >I think the chance is higher, I've succeeded more often than failed
> > with my
> > > >C40s, but maybe I was born lucky?
> > >
> > > Hi Pontus, would you risk putting this down in very approximate
> > numbers? I'm
> > > in one of those scenarios where if one of us fails the downgrade and
> > the
> > > rest press the attack forward, they'll kill themselves on Rhudaur's
> > walls
> > > So we have to decide whether to attack now or wait until we make
> > sure the
> > > downgrade has succeeded...
> > >
> > > Thanks!
> > >
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