Does anyone have a good way to estimate the chances of a threat working?
Recently, I’ve had rank 70 commanders failing to threaten camps, and also seen a commander ranked 30 something successfully threaten a town - possibly helped by a very large army.
There was an article in Bree, but the advice it gave doesn’t seem to fit the facts.
Michael:
If the lovely Tine and yourself jump ship and join Team John Simpson, this and many other secrets will be revealed to you.
Ed
It’s all subjective of course but if in a pinch:
Threatening (By Rob Gaul)
Command rank+command arties+number of troops as a % of the required force
to take the popn (eg 5000 troops for a city). Warmachines count as 25
troops.
Minus popn loyalty - 20 per fortification level, -20 for capital.
Thus 2000 troops and 10 WM with a C70 against a MT/F with 60 loyalty (non
capital) would be
2000 troops + (10x25=250 troop equiv for WM)= 2250, which is 90% of the
required 2500 force for a MT. +70 (no arties) = 160 total
minus 40 for fortifications - 60 loyalty = 60% total. Your comms tend to
fail these ones alot suggesting that a natural rank needs to be higher
against useful fortifications. High numbers of command items seem to buoy
you no end.
Stags alludes to my belief that command rank is underrated when using an apersonal “formula” that includes those silly troops… I seem to have missed the Bree…what advice did they give?
G’day Brad,
Not too sure which bree it was, I missed it too.
The theory and words above are all Rob’s. It’s just a general guide that’s been around forever, in one form or another, on what is a funny order. Command rank I think is key, high enough and it doesn’t matter how many troops that Lord Marshall has! I generally won’t even bother with anything less than a warlord and if its something important, I’ll be making sure I’m 100+, as usually the price for failure is too risky.
Anyway, it’s much more fun to light the matches 
Ed: We are greatly honoured by your vote of confidence.
Stags: Your formula is similar to the one I saw before - with one big difference, the percentage based on the number of troops vs the requirement for the pop centre.
This may be a good guide for many cases. But it would imply that 300 troops against a camp would always win, and this is not the case, even with crack commanders. But having more troops than required DOES seem to help, especially at larger pop centres.
Many thanks for the advice.
Never say always. There is a random factor to everything in this game. A common newbie’ish trap is to get overwhelmingly upset when things that are “supposed” to happen don’t.
The game mechanics of MEPBM are highly similar to Rolemaster (naturally).
One theory put forth is that NATURAL rank must fall into the appropriate range to “get on the right table”. In other words, being a Natural C60+ means THE WORLD to a Threat attempt, thereafter greatly boosted by Command Artifacts.
My limited experience suggests there may be some truth to this theory.
Nonetheless, VEO’s comment is most appropriate – don’t get used to what “should” work in this game. Any roll can go open-ended low (sometimes paraphrased as “5% odds to botch”).
However, if you consistently fail, it becomes increasingly difficult to believe you’re just having bad luck. Perhaps your formula needs review.
Much must be risked in war.
Its outcome is uncertain.
Get used to those two and then go back to unlocking/developing your Threat formula.