My thanks again to all who’ve helped this newbie with answers to my questions about various orders.
Yet again I have another question. Does anyone how I can tell in advance if a Threaten order is likely to succeed? and if so what the odds of success are?
I’ll be grateful for any help anyone can offer.
It’s yet another hotly debated topic.
The key factors appear to be Comm rank versus Loyalty. Other factors, including army size, are secondary.
Do fortifications matter? I personally think so, but this is one of those orders with a large enough random roll that it’s hard to tell for sure.
How much does size help? Does a capital receive a bonus resisting? Do warmachines really matter? If so, what if there’s no fort? Players don’t agree on any of this (one experienced teammate believes Threat success is checked by a roll against Comm skill alone – with no other factors considered – but most people, including me, don’t agree).
There’s a common formula for Threat, and I’ll send if you like, but it’s so wildly unreliable I hesitate to even mention it.
Don’t let any of this dissuade you if Threat is the right tactic for a given situation – there are some excellent times to try – but there’s only one, iron-clad truth about Threat: it’s a gamble.
Nanook,
Yes, please do post your Threat formula. I (and I’m sure a few other players) would really appreciate it.
Nanook, I’ve never failed with the formula. I’ve seen Regents fail against 22 loyalty camps…but always Enemy Regents! 
Ok, here’s Paul Comber’s old formula. % chance is:
Comm rank (inc arties) - loyalty - 20/fortification -20 if capital + 100 if you have sufficient troops (see Siege chart in the book).
It’s the best I’ve seen, and I still use it as a benchmark, but with a good deal of skepticism. I’m most wary of the “sufficient troops” figure, and the capital penalty.
Interesting to see Player’s high success rate with this! In a recent game, I failed for four turns with a C82 and sufficient troops at a pc with a fort/loyalty 35 (102%, according to the formula).
Recent theory suggests that it is a two stage order. The Comer formula being the second stage. The first stage is a random roll to see if the the order is actually given. The second stage tells what effect the order has.
If correct, then the order is actually an “average” order, not “hard” as in the Rulebook.
I don’t buy that formula either, Nanook. Its too linear. MEPBM definitely has thresholds, where once your char has enough skill, orders start working a much higher % of the time.
And ‘Sufficient troops to threaten’ isn’t that big a change in the odds.
Originally posted by nanook
Comm rank (inc arties) - loyalty - 20/fortification -20 if capital + 100 if you have sufficient troops (see Siege chart in the book).
The only variation I’m used to is on the troops:
Com Rank
gives the % chance of a successful threat.
So a 60 commander leading the 1000 troops needed to the man, threatening a pop that’s got 40 loyalty and a tower, has a 100% chance, according to the formula.
Of course the game isn’t so linear, and nothing seems to top 95% anyway, so I’m of the mind that assumes there are more “modifiers” underneath. For example, it’s a “Hard” order. Some may rationalize that away, but I’ve never seen it work with a 40 commander, no matter how poor loyalty the camp is. Everything is on a “sliding” scale. Don’t even bother with the order if you’re under 50, for example. But once your command rank has topped up to and beyond 80, threaten everything that doesn’t start as a city-citadel to your hearts content. Basically, the 50 needs to be WAY over the formula, while the 80+ gets much more leeway.
As for the number of troops…I’ve seen 100+ commanders threaten Cities with a dozen good men while newly named Commanders couldn’t threaten a beaver lodge with 4500 HC. For all intents and purposes, I use the formula as a guide based on the command rank vs pop centre factors, but as I don’t bother (anymore) trying to cut if fine with 42 commanders anyway, I can’t say “It works to the 7th decimal place for me every time.”…
Brad
Originally posted by Player
Don’t even bother with the order if you’re under 50, for example. But once your command rank has topped up to and beyond 80, threaten everything that doesn’t start as a city-citadel to your hearts content.
Brad, what do you think of the theory (not mine) that it’s a skill order, period? Meaning a C80 has a far better chance than a C50, but everything else – including loyalty – doesn’t matter?
What do you make of my string of four failures with the C82 mentioned above?
Dan
I use the formula as a guideline, but feel command rank has a lot more to do with it. All “skill” orders take into account the loyalty, fortifications, etc of the pop you’re in…
As for your c82…was he a starting multiclass that may have been doubled? Did he lead around a large entourage of “ladies”? Did your nation implement mandatory drug testing? You might have had a classic mid life crisis situation where he got to what he considered the pinnacle of his success, one 1/20 roll bred a mindset of failure that led him to reconsider his youthful ambitions in horticulture or haiku…?
Originally posted by Player
As for your c82…was he a starting multiclass that may have been doubled?
He does have emmmy skill, and I wondered this, too; I’m waiting to ask my opponent when the game’s done. But this was at game start, and unless they made exceptional use of the Pectoral, my enemy had only an E30 available – possible, but a long shot.
It does raise an interesting question: Does Doubling affect Comm orders?
This is one of the few questions I actually had answered directly by GSI: they said Doubling impacts only Agent and Emmy orders. Either they were wrong, or my Comm needs to lay off the bottle.
Use this as a simpler base. I use some of the formula to varying degrees. Firstly you have to have the number of troops needed. Read in 2500 for mTs i.e. the force needed to Threaten. If you don’t have this then chance is involved. Secondly it IS based on loyalty. I manage to 498 Isengard in 2950 With Theoden and the Dunedan comm arties. It didn’t work until I had 2507 troops in the army. Read into that what you will.
Most players will tell you “don’t even attempt it until your command rank is 70”. Don’t listen, if you have the troops a 20 commander can do it, I have the pdf to prove it. A 40 commander just took a town off NG but he did have 3500 troops under his command. Three turns later and he’s threatened three towns and captured a major town and his command rank is up to 57.
I think loyalty is an important factor whether the threat is successful, as I have threatened very low loyalty major towns with sub 60 commanders having substantially less than the required number of troops.
Though I would only try this when I am unable to capture or destroy, as I wouldn’t rely on this type of threat working regularly.
Loyalty can be scouted though. Just make sure you have a good Agent there(pref with scouting bonus) at the pop centre.