Wait! First everything is a die roll, and there’s almost always some roll, even two 1s on a pair of 100-side dice, that would allow a positive outcome even in the worst of circumstances. Second there’s the chart that states a minimum number, but then there’s the actual rule that been in the Guide for years that says: “Success is based on the character’s command rank, the size of the population centre, the loyalty rank of the populace, the size of the threatening army or navy, the presence of any war machines in the army or navy, and the presence of fortifications in the population centre. Other armies of the same nation as the threatening force in the hex will increase the chances of success (without the need to issue a Threaten order themselves).“ That’s even in my paper rule book that dates at least to the early ‘90s, and it make pretty clear that the result depends on a number of factors that adjust where the success/failure line on the million-sided die falls. Has anyone noticed that even that best assassins fail, and even a character with a low challenge rank, shaking in her boots facing Ji Indur on turn 15, sometimes crawls away wounded, but looking for a cup of mead, a pat on the back, and someone else to clean up the mess and bury old Ji? Fog of war, with or without foghorns, rules all wargaming.
Harry