Game 81 Grudge Begins

General
#161

Propoganda master Loke,

The jabs in your last post are half true and spin, not all the fighting is surrounding our pop centers. Of course the Rhudaur and WK fight valiantly, just as the Corsairs and EO must also. Their fates are very similiar if you look through the fog of lies Sauron spins in front of you. The Rhu only has his capital due to luck (Dragon on the first possible turn he could recruit one). But his starting army is now disbanded in the way only the Cloudie would appreciate, so unless he has an endless supply of dragons it shouldn’t be too much longer before he is overrun and then the WK will be alone.

Eoplex is threatened, we acknowledge we made some early errors and judgement calls. But your little excursion forces on the fringe really haven’t done all that much damage considering it has been a real weakness since turn 4. We couldn’t even apply pressure on the Drglord, so the real question is what took you so long. :slight_smile:

All joking aside, we still acknowlege that we had a lot of learning to do in the game and your team played it exceptionally well. You have the efficiencies of ME figured out and down to a science and we are still learning how to be efficient, at least as a team and some of us as individuals. While I’ll attack your propaganda in jest, we understand the attrition of a normal game of ME and we are under its pressures. We are learning a bunch every turn, and hope that when the game ends, your team will help us learn more through a post mortem experience. (i.e. we discuss the game, strategy, thoughts, techniques, share turns etc…) We are actually excited to have a game go past turn 12, even one where we are not winning. Hopefully the next 10 turns will be fun for both sides. :slight_smile:

Dave
Dwarf Empire

#162

Some thoughts about Luck

Luck in this game is mostly based on statistical probability. There are no known ways of computing an the agents chance of assassinating an armycommander and in most cases one does not know all factors in the equation. This is were expierience comes into play. From the recent assassinations or attempts thereof, I assume that the Eos must have downgraded their relations to the Cloudies somewhere in t 4-7. In general I accept only a chance lower than 25% for the risk of failure, sometimes I take stupid chances. So its just adjusting your rule of thumb in a shifting environment and its pretty obvious that all freep nations have downgraded to Cloudie by now. By committing only agents with a reasonable chance of success in the first place one can minimize the influence of the unfaithful and shifty goddess Fortuna.

Luck and dragons again is probability and by improving the probability of knowing were a “friendly” dragon is something we did from the beginning. This again is quite noticable by the sheer numbers of dragons you have met with our armies. Ofcourse you know that, otherwise old Elrond would never have wasted his precious skills on camps in the Misty Mountains.

So in conclusion I quote an old and slightly modified german proverb:

Jeder ist seines Glückes Schmied, aber nicht jeder Schmied hat Glück.

Translated its something like this:

One is the smith of ones luck(fortune), but not every smith is lucky(fortunate).

With my hammer I go to work on the goddess to improve my luck - Loke:D:D:D

Ps: The most important part is ofcourse to lower the blunder frequency, me knows by expirience.

#163

I agree with you on luck or statistical probability for the most part. I did mention that your team seems to know a great deal about all the efficiencies in the game. But still, there is a element of random chance in almost every order in the game.

Let breakout the odds of the Rhu Dragon on turn 4 @ 2008.

  1. You had to know where Kruzadrepa would appear on turn 3. Maybe you do know where they all appear on the very first turn of their appearance. If so, then this game has some real mechanical issues, but that aside, if you didn’t know where this dragon would appear you had to rely on statistical probabilities of where a dragon would appear on the very first turn they appear.

  2. You had to have a Rhu character in place to have the encounter with that dragon on that turn. Not any nation’s character, a Rhu character. So the statistical odds increase some that one of your 12 starting characters lands on the hex stated in #1.

  3. You had to have your character with the best combination of natural skill commanding an army at your capital hex. If Arfanhil would have been commanding an army somewhere else, then the capital may have been guarded by an army w/o a dragon, and would have been eliminated with his MT by our forces.

As you can see, as we layer in each variable, the statistical odds increase. Of course if you tell me that you knew where the dragon would appear on the first turn, I’d believe you as you seemed to own them all very quickly, I’d also consider this game my last one of ME, mainly because the flavor of the game has already dried out long ago. I’m from the old school that liked having some unknowns and discovery in my gaming. I would like to randomize the artifacts, dragon info, etc… It is kind of like an old piece of gum, just nothing left to the imagination if that is true. But if you didn’t know, then the odds are probably pretty low that all 3 of the above correlate and converge. (i.e Luck)

I agree that that relentless preparation can mitigate the need for luck. And you guys have your act together and it shows. We are a new team of good individual players that need to find a way to work as a team. We don’t have information on every dragon and where they start. We are getting better and partly due to your strong competition.

Finally, when I call you guys lucky, especially you Cloudie, I know you had an agent in place at the right time, in the right place, etc… But you were also lucky that we didn’t have the intelligence on your agent, we weren’t prepared for it (i.e. downgraded), and we just blind to it (or just stupid). Hopefully in the last few turns you’ve discovered that it is a little harder to crack the defense as we improve.

Old Biblical say, “Iron sharpens Iron”. :slight_smile:

Overall, I think our team has enjoyed the contest so far, and understand we are a little overmatched in this game. But don’t think we are an easy drop, even if we lose we will make you earn it. :wink:

Dave
Dwarven Empire

#164

Hi Dave

No - we do not know about dragon starting locations or anything like that. Its common knowlegde that the great lizzards prefer to roam around in certain areas (Misty Mountains etc), all you have to do is create your camps in these areas and they will somehow act as a magnet. There about 15 dragons in this game and the probability that one or two of them will show up in your existing or new pops is pretty high. You send out a char to meet and great this nasty thing and it will join your army, then move the army with your best com to where you want to nuke some Dwarves.

Risks: The dragon has left when your char arrives, the beast joins the wrong army, your char ends up as a snack.

Possible ways to increase the propabilty of getting a dragon in the right spot: Try to recruit two different dragons, get the next best armycom to the right spot too.

It is costly to minimize the influence of randomness/luck. We tried to recruit a dragon (Scorba?) a turn prior to Khuzadrepa, but that wasnt possible.

Rhu got the dragon, because it was there, we knew the whereabouts of ~4 dragons by t04. If there had been no dragon avaiable we would have blocked the Dwarven army outside Cameth Brin and assassed the commander and his sub or at least have tried to do so.

Loke:D:D:D

Khuzadrepa joined Rhu in t06.

#165

Oops, may have had my turns messed up.

Good to hear that you don’t have any more info than us on the dragons, but I believe on turn 6, we had 4-5 battles with your team, all having dragons involved. In my experience, using the same methods you explained, dragons didn’t stay very long in one spot, or I was unlucky to find the dragon still there when I moved in to get the encounter. Maybe 50/50 at best. I’ve been surprised how well you’ve done not just finding them & recruiting them, and getting the character there in time to recruit them.

Anyway, water under the bridge as far as the Dwarves are concerned. Looking forward to seeing your turns when this is all over, especially on the Dragon maneuvering.

Dave
Dwarf

#166

Dragon question =

On turn 1: I recruit a dragon and it goes to commander A

Question: On turn 1 can:

a. Commander A “transfer command” to commander B and dragon would move with army to commander B?

Thanks - John

#167

Hi John

Never tried that one, but Im confident that it is possible. The Dragon joins your army after 285, but before 498 (at least thats my workingtheory for the moment). It is rumored that two factors better your chances to keep the dragon longer: Commander skill/army size and “entertainment”, that is battles or feeding your lizzard with enemy troopers. I have not the expirience nor the statistics to verify the last one, just a workingtheory again.

Ill ask my teammates about it, no doubt they have done it before.

Good hunting and dont be too rough on the cardies and corsairs, they are nice guys:eek:.

Loke:D:D:D

#168

Greetings dear victims

Another turn is due tomorrow and lets see how nasty it gets. The momentarily not so impregnable fortress of Mordor is back to its old self, any new attempts to breach our defences? Who knows - not me anyhow. New orcnappings - maybe (did you notice that Bolvag looks a lot like Homer Jay Simpson). Lots of dead freep commanders - possible. Further attempts to sabotage our moneymaking shemes?

May the dragons be with us :eek:

Loke:D:D:D

#169

Greetings

Tata (imagine a fanfare) - got 4 Eo commanders and disbanded 2 of their armies leaving the Eo-plex utterly undefended, a fifth army commander died suddenly of a mysterious desease. The Northgondorians seem to be very slow learners or they have a unhealthy fixation on Barad U. Whatever it is, a new supply of fresh corpses is always welcome, we have to keep our lizzards fat and happy:D

Loke:D:D:D

#170

Greetings,

Not much to say this round, still waiting on a couple turns to post from one of our players. EO took a shot, we knew it was coming, but not much we can do about it. Rhu position appears to be now overrun, and the WK decided to stop watching it happen and moved his armies?

Turn 13 should prove more exciting, many battles to calculate. Hopefully your Dragon recruiting is on the lighter side at the moment and we will wipe out some key PCs.

Dave
Dwarf

#171

On a good note, the market appears to be coming back to norm. Are you guys slacking off?

Dave
DW

#172

No way, we’re not slacking off one bit. Just making small experiments, reorganising and adjusting and … recruiting.
Never mind, so you’ve decided that corsairs had to leave most of their homelands, eothraim’s a thing with a limited future and well that could be applyed to others. So it’s gonna be crowded in the Grey Havens docks soon, allthough Barad Ungol seems to be the place to at the moment if you dont go to Rhudaur.

I FÅR IKKE LOV AT PASSERE
(thats black speech)

#173

Fup, for a minute there I thought you just might give us credit for 3 good turns of countering the market buyouts. It was a short minute…

EO: Limited short term future at least…but we can rebuild him, make him stronger, faster, better. {Six million dollar man theme running in the background…}

Corsairs: He has more assets than the Rhudaur, you do have the blitzkrieg mobilized but it will be slow.

Others: Looking over the “others” we are fine, and we are actually looking more efficient and organized than ever before (for our team). No delusions of grandeur mind you, we know we are up against a very good team and on the wrong side of the attrition, but we are enjoying the underdog role.

Will the grand dragons save the Rhu’s hide again? Does NG have the Woses as history repeats? Lots of battles this turn, only the worms and buzzards win.

Dave
Dwarf

#174

Dave

You’ve let me down so far on the mithrill buyout so far, so no credit until then.
On Others: Looks can be deceptive!! (fortune cookie wisdom).
Theres no such thing as “woses”, its human orc-impersonators with blowpipes, you silly dwarf, and we really dont like them bringing this carnivalistic aspect to the war.
Also, they were not in the movies…

#175

Hmmm - nothing much to write about? Id say it depends on the subject; if you only write about your successes then you may be right:D

Well done with the market-sabotage, it prevented us from getting obcenely rich, currently were only stinking rich. The little donations to our fundraising agents in your pops shows how popular Sauron has become lately, your citizens long for him to shape their future.

Surprise, SG troops east of the Anduin, guess this means a new flavour dragonfood on the march. There were some compliants, the Dunlendian Donkeyriders tasted a bit woolly, no wonder though - they looked kind of sheepish when Culgor attacked.

Surprise No. 2, Shorties east of Misty Mountains, is it desperation or is it a display of (over)confidence that Rhudaurs fall is possible without any further Dwarwen medling?

Im very disappointed with the South Gondorinas. They havent even shown a shred of interest for Haleth´s wellbeing, do they really want him to wither away in a dark dank dungeon? Maybe I should catch me some more and see what happens then.

Loke:D:D:D

#176

“Surprise No. 2, Shorties east of Misty Mountains, is it desperation or is it a display of (over)confidence that Rhudaurs fall is possible without any further Dwarwen medling?”

Thanks for the vote of confidence that the Dwarves empire is so powerful to guarntee the Rhu’s fall, whereas without me they stand a chance. :slight_smile:

Honestly don’t know how that force ended up way down there, just a little expedition force… Don’t pay any attention to it, it is too small to cause much harm.

Dave
Dwarf

#177

Greetings,

WOW! A heavy volume of discussion this turn for us, more than our normal last day Thursday prep. Hope it will pay off. Just wanted to wish you all the best in your real lives, but hope to see some sick failures on the game turns tomorrow. Everyone knows we need some slack. :slight_smile: Especially the constrictor and Ji, you two need a day off, maybe time to have a little mental meltdown and get caught by our guards?

Looking forward to tomorrow…

Dave
Dwarf

#178

What a beautifull turn, it seems that a South Gondorian army consisting of 5200 troops has been disbanded in Osgiliath. Havent seen all turns yet but it looks good.

Loke:D:D:D

#179

Loke,

Have you seen your IK or Dark Lts turn yet? Just curious? :slight_smile:

Dave
Dwarf

#180

While Mr. Loke gets his facts straight, just reporting in on the massacre at Mt. Gram and other Rhudaur holdings. Lots of missing PCs up north. Looks like the Rhudaur will find a new home in Mordor soon, that dragon bootlicker can only thank the great worms for holding this long, twice saving Arfanhil from certain defeat. :wink:

Corsairs and Eoth still in trouble, but not out.

Loke, Ivory Tower’s pub is open to Grasty’s army so long as they leave the camp unscathed. Otherwise we’ll destroy all the beer & nuts before you can take it. :slight_smile:

Dave
Dwarf